Book: Super Crunchers...

Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart

"He (the author) frequently asks whether statistical methods are more accurate than the more intuitive conclusions drawn by experts, and consistently concludes that they are. Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined." - From Publishers Weekly

"In the past, one could get by on intuition and experience. Times have changed. Today, the name of the game is data. Ian Ayres shows us how and why in this groundbreaking book Super Crunchers. Not only is it fun to read, it just may change the way you think."—Steven D. Levitt, author of Freakonomics

While I don't doubt human abilities, a lot of times, I feel humans give way too much weightage to recent observations. That biases the data mining going on in our heads. Statistical methods, on the other hand, tend to be more even handed and careful about sampling from the past, avoiding over fitting, etc. That makes them more robust and more useful.

I am looking forward to reading this book and see how it compares to Freakonomics, The Black Swan..., etc.

Bonus: This is for my movie buff friend: "[Ayres's] thesis is provocative: Complex statistical models could be used to market products more intelligently, craft better movies, and solve health-care problems—if only we could get past our statistics phobia." —Portfolio

Another EQ

A minor earthquake (3.0) occurred at 4:05:35 PM (PDT) on Tuesday, August 28, 2007. Emeryville, CA - 5 km (3 miles)

I felt this one pretty strong. While I felt it for only a second, it shook me up pretty hard and my heart beat raced up immediately. Ha well. Yet another distraction during work.

SFGate report is here. Here is the epicenter:

View Larger Map

Biking

Recently, I got a bike - a 2004 Giant Cypress Hybrid. Got very addicted to it. Enjoying the pleasures of riding a very comfortable bike and exploring my neighborhood. I still remember the feeling on the day my dad removed the balance wheels on my cycle and I learnt to drive on 2 wheels. Suddenly, I got to go way faster, go on roads that were off limits because of the balance wheel, etc. I just could not stop riding.

With this bike, after the initial euphoria and riding around aimlessly, I have now settled on a route. This loop has some great views of the bay, good tail wind and then goes inland but pretty much sticks to bike paths. Total distance: 6.3 miles. If you do the shore line from East to West, there is considerable head wind, sun in the eye (evenings) and not so much fun.

Alameda Shoreline Loop

Share your bike routes @ Bikely.com

This site, Bikely.com is amazing. Tons of suggestions and maps. I am hoping to discover more routes in the East Bay and be fit and happy at the same time.


Update: I took a small deviation today and went up to Bay Farm. Din't venture too deep but was a pleasant detour.

Alameda Shoreline Bay Farm Central Loop

Share your bike routes @ Bikely.com

Chak De India

I saw this movie last week and was impressed. It is difficult to mess up a sports themed movie. There is enough tension, emotion, rooting going on in a game/preparation for a game the movie makers have to carry it along. Given it is a movie, we pretty much know before hand who will win the final match. The trick is managing to induce surprises along the way. I think the director has done a very good job of introducing twists and turns, making the different players unique in their background and outlook and nicely integrating those aspects into the movie. It could very well be a nice movie to show on the character diversity present in India and yet how people get along nicely in the end.

I am very happy to see this movie come out of Bollywood where sports movies are a rarity. Even if sports was involved, it was always diluted by being a means to something else - redeem family honor, defeat villain, win over heroine. This movie had winning as its main theme with the different facets of the team - coach, players, administrators taking the central role. Pleasantly absent were a romantic interest for the hero, a born to pain the hero villain, a fight sequence, etc. A nice movie indeed.

Remember the Titans came to my mind after seeing this movie. Its an excellent movie with some underlying similarity with Chak De - underdogs performing above the rest in spite of society's lack of confidence, a bigger message at stake in the results, etc. This movie too had the coach playing a pivotal role in the movie and in unifying the players despite their obvious and not so obvious differences.

ps: To get recommendations on movies based on what you have watched (and others), check MovieLens from the University of Minnesota, CS Department.

Don't walk

"Food production is now so energy-intensive that more carbon is emitted providing a person with enough calories to walk to the shops than a car would emit over the same distance. The climate could benefit if people avoided exercise, ate less and became couch potatoes. Provided, of course, they remembered to switch off the TV rather than leaving it on standby."

Walking to the shops ‘damages planet more than going by car’

Hmmm...I go to the gym, and use energy (treadmills using electricity) to burn energy. May be I should just sit at home and blog.

The article goes on to shatter a few more green myths like:

"— Paper bags cause more global warming than plastic. They need much more space to store so require extra energy to transport them from manufacturers to shops

— Organic dairy cows are worse for the climate. They produce less milk so their methane emissions per litre are higher

— Someone who installs a “green” lightbulb undoes a year’s worth of energy-saving by buying two bags of imported veg, as so much carbon is wasted flying the food to Britain"

Of course, the commenters in the discussions have thrashed the research, saying the calculations don't take into account the energy that went into making the car, producing and transporting the fuel, etc. Also, not everyone eats beef and beef as a source of all the calories for our body is pretty inefficient.

Again, in the case of the organic dairy cows, what about all the food and other supplements that are provided to a regular dairy cow versus what an organic dairy cow consumes?

It is difficult to go down the energy chain and exactly audit the consumption. It would be prudent to try to conserve energy through little things like switching the lights off when we leave a room, switching the monitor/computer when not in use, etc.

Simplicity

"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction"
- Albert Einstein.

Could not be said more beautifully.

And then I come across this: Why the Desire to Simplify Can Inhibit Innovation

"...Here the key is to be able to seek less obvious, but potentially relevant factors (that will give differentiation in the long run, although to start with will seem like they are adding more complexity to the topic), secondly it is the ability to consider multi-directional, non-linear relationships between these variables and seeing problems as a whole, examining how the parts fit together and how decisions affect one another, and then lastly: creatively resolve those conflicts between seemingly opposing ideas to generate innovative outcomes. ..."

I agree. Innovation is not simple. The solution could and should be simple. But the process is bloody and takes a lot of complex balancing, satisfying constrains - often conflicting.

The Bourne Ultimatum

Watched this movie last night and man, was I impressed. I am easily impressed but this one blew me away. Not many action movies get claps at the end. This one did.

Specifically, the scene at Tangier, Morocco was awesome. With Jason Bourne jumping from building to building, with the police on his heals, he trying to save the heroine from the killer who is also looking to kill Jason, it was one heck of a sequence. The camera following Jason as he jumps into a building was very cool. The only part of the movie I dint like was the part at the end when Jason delivers a speech to the guy who holds a gun to Jason. That din't fit well with the rest of the action packed non stop edge of the seat movie.

My verdict: A+.

Yahoo movies
critics: B+
users: A-

Bridge collapse in Minneapolis

The bridge on I-35 used to cross the Mississippi river fell into the water below. This is crazy. It was like 2 blocks from where I lived. When I started working, I used to take this bridge every day! We used to take this bridge to go to downtown, the airport or pretty much any where even remotely south of my place. I hear all my friends in Minneapolis are safe.
Here is a link to the bridge on google maps


Reuters report says:
"A 500-foot (150-metre) span of the eight-lane steel and concrete bridge, which was under repair, buckled and fell into the river and onto concrete embankments at about 6:05 p.m. CDT (2305 GMT)."

"A freight train was passing on a track running under the bridge when it collapsed, and the train was cut in two, WCCO television reported."