Book: Super Crunchers...

Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart

"He (the author) frequently asks whether statistical methods are more accurate than the more intuitive conclusions drawn by experts, and consistently concludes that they are. Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined." - From Publishers Weekly

"In the past, one could get by on intuition and experience. Times have changed. Today, the name of the game is data. Ian Ayres shows us how and why in this groundbreaking book Super Crunchers. Not only is it fun to read, it just may change the way you think."—Steven D. Levitt, author of Freakonomics

While I don't doubt human abilities, a lot of times, I feel humans give way too much weightage to recent observations. That biases the data mining going on in our heads. Statistical methods, on the other hand, tend to be more even handed and careful about sampling from the past, avoiding over fitting, etc. That makes them more robust and more useful.

I am looking forward to reading this book and see how it compares to Freakonomics, The Black Swan..., etc.

Bonus: This is for my movie buff friend: "[Ayres's] thesis is provocative: Complex statistical models could be used to market products more intelligently, craft better movies, and solve health-care problems—if only we could get past our statistics phobia." —Portfolio