dna's corner

Subprime

2008-02-17T09:34:00.003-06:00

The subprime mortgage mess is under every one's radar. People are talking about it, its impact on the economy, who caused it, etc. Here are two good explanations. One is a google doc ppt and is very funny. The other is a well written piece on how mortgages were given out and managed in the past and how it was done that led to the mess.

It is common sense. You give loans to risky people, fully aware they are risky and fully aware their other documents (income, etc.) are not verified. You give loan amounts to people that is not in line with their income. And interest rates can go up making these loans even less affordable to the people. With house values sky high, the prices can only come down. What do you expect? Bundling and selling them to wall street does not make them a safe and sound investment. They continue to be junk investments in the hands of someone else and we all know in our economy, when wall street catches a cold, the whole world sneezes and coughs and suffers.

To add to this, the government wants to intervene. Sometimes, leaving things to take its own course will be better than trying to do something. People who made stupid choices need to pay the price for it. Not the general public through their tax money.

Here is an interesting take on who is to be blamed:
" At the crisis' core are loans that were made with virtually nonexistent underwriting standards - no verification of income or assets; little consideration of the applicant's ability to make payments; no down payment. ...
From the current hand-wringing, you'd think that the banks came up with the idea of looser underwriting standards on their own, with regulators just asleep on the job. In fact, it was the regulators who relaxed these standards - at the behest of community groups and "progressive" political forces."

It is an interesting take and sounds plausible. Government fiddling with the operational guidelines and risk management principles of the bank in the name of 'doing good for the people' - so familiar.

ATM & grocery

2008-02-12T22:48:00.001-06:00

Sadness may encourage more extravagance

The article says:"A new study shows people's spending judgment goes out the window when they're down, especially if they're a bit self-absorbed."

No wonder my grocery stores has an atm machine at the entrance - I go in, check my balance, feel sad and shop a lot. Damn.

MacBook Air Ad

2008-01-30T08:41:00.001-06:00

Many people like many things about the new MacBook Air. To me, it is the ad for Air, which then led me to discover the artist Yael Naim. Lovely song and great picturization.

Under grad Bay Area visit

2008-01-19T16:56:00.000-06:00

Last weekend, my friends from under grad had come over for a small vacation here to the Bay Area. It was a total blast, catching up, having fun, pulling each other's legs. With half of these guys getting married very soon, it was also in some sense, the last big 3 day party where they could have unabridged fun.

Alameda C'Mas

2007-12-23T23:18:00.000-06:00

Thomson Street in Alameda transforms itself into a Christmas paradise every December with the whole street beautifully decorated with lights, santa, cartoon characters, etc. This is a tradition going on since WWII. The street wore a very festive look, with people kids and dogs all jostling for place. There was a Santa sitting with kids waiting to get a minute to tell their wishes. I met someone from as far as San Jose who had come to look at this. Check here for more details. Below are some pics I took while I was there tonight.

Cowen on incentives

2007-12-08T21:40:00.000-06:00

In this interview, Tyler Cowen, a professor of economics at George Mason University, answers why people blog and why many continue to remain in jobs even when they could potentially be making more money in a different company or job:

"Knowlege@Wharton: So we can be motivated to do a lot of work, even highly skilled work, just because it’s fun?

Cowen: Absolutely. A lot of science works on the same basis. It’s true that scientists get paid, but typically they don’t get paid more, or much more, for discovering something that will make them famous. They do it because they love science, or because they want the recognition or because they just stumble upon it. Einstein was never a wealthy man but he worked very hard. So blogging is a new form of an old idea: that people do great things for free. Adam Smith didn’t get paid much for writing Wealth of Nations, even though it’s a long book that required a lot of work. He had an inner drive to get his ideas out there."

I could not agree more. I blogged about this earlier and reiterate it here: money is not the only motivation. We are more complex than what some economists would like to think of us as. We try to optimize our rewards over a longer period of time - lower salary now might mean better opportunities in the long run. Lower salary now might mean a better learning opportunity, more job satisfaction, etc. It is a balance and each one arrives at a balance and mix of money and satisfaction and other incentives based on what makes them happy and satisfied and feel smug about themselves.

Frame your ideas

2007-12-08T20:58:00.000-06:00

Don't think of an elephant. The author of this book, while a liberal; the ideas discussed here are for any one interested in communicating effectively. He discusses how to frame your ideas and facts so that people can digest it. He talks about how setting the context, making sure the ideas are palatable to people's existing frame of mind is critical in ensuring in winning them over. He sites numerous examples of how republicans do it very well and democrats bungle it.

This is a thought that many in the sales field have spoken to me about. They tell me how framing is critical in putting you on the offensive and the competition on the defensive, how it makes the competition compete on your terms rather than their terms, how the client will start looking at the different products through the prism you provide, giving you an edge.

The author says that when there is a conflict between an existing frame in people's mind and truth, it is truth that loses. A fact that could not be stressed enough in our business life. We all need to be aware that people were punished and burned for saying the earth goes around the sun. When you try to throw facts at people and they are not ready to catch it, tough luck. They will drop what you say and keep the gloves that does not fit what you just threw at them. George Lakoff talks eloquently on this concept in his book.

SW boarding

2007-12-08T20:24:00.000-06:00

South West airlines does not assign seating on their flights. Earlier, it was a mad rush for the seats, people getting early to the boarding gate, placing their bags in the queue, sitting on the floor, etc. Recently, they have slightly modified their system such that each passenger is assigned a boarding order. Not a seat number but just the order in which you may board the aircraft. They have also modified the boarding area such that it is easy for people to stand in the order of their boarding.

So, no more placing our bags in queue and squatting on the floor for one of the coveted front row seats. I like the system, though could be better. Given it is new, people were still getting used to it and lead to an interesting conversation with a copassenger at a boarding gate in San Diego. We commented how SW treats its passengers like school kids, testing them for numbers and orders, punishing those who approach the gate out of turn by sending them to the line, and finally, if all behave well and settle down in the seats, get rewarded with - peanuts. I don't know if I should feel like a kid or a monkey.

This system of assigning boarding order, or doing it on a first come first serve basis leads to a single problem - people want to sit in the front so they can get out first. So they enter the aircraft and block the flow of the rest of the passengers as they try to settle down in the front. Instead, I feel the whole system would work great if airlines could figure out a way to board from the front but exit from the back. That way, there is a strong incentive for people to just keep moving towards the back and letting people board as fast as possible. Of course, there are some logistical issues to this and I am not even sure if this is possible with the current gate infrastructure. This could not be so bad if the gate operators could make say let passengers out from the back, and let the new set of passengers in through the back as well, but let them know that at the destination, they will exit from the front (opposite to what end they used for boarding). This would reduce the logistical issue of moving the bridge from one end to the other while at the same time ensuring passengers don't try to block the entry area.

An other option would be to ask passengers with checked in baggage to move to the back. They could create two zones within the aircraft - one in the back and one in the front. They should board the checked in baggage customers first and assign them to the back zone. Then, they should let the passengers with just the checked in baggage to occupy the front zone. Again, there are some practical issues here, but nevertheless something the airlines should consider, if they have already not done.

Birthdays

2007-09-30T22:51:00.000-05:00

My friend bragged about the people she shares her birthday with. That prompted me to look up who share my birthday with. It was interesting to note a pattern. For example, among the worthy people who share my birthday, many were artists - painters, musicians, etc. On the other hand, my friends' birthday is shared by a lot of notable mathematicians.

I didn't look deeper but is there any correlation between the date of birth and field of excellence? Some work has been done to explain say why lot of the professional athletes were born earlier in the year. Taking cues from that, may be due to the weather say around a baby's 1st birthday, he/she was either playing outside, or painting the landscape or learning math because it is gloomy or thinking of stories inspired by the snow. May be.
Again, this theory needs to be vetted by comparing people with birthdays in the same month. Which would only validate the sun signs claims of people behaving in certain manners based on the date on which they were born.

To check who were born on your birthdate, check here. Wikipedia rocks. Can't imagine any other site having this information for every day in a year.

Sports Entertainment

2007-09-10T15:45:00.000-05:00

Should athletes play their game or entertain? While Pete Sampras played the best possible tennis, Andre Agassi entertained. Andre had a personality and I wanted to watch him play. He winning was not given. He had to fight for it. He went up and down during the game and as a fan of his, I participated in his mini wins and failures. He was a human who was struggling and yet, through his efforts, did pretty well for himself. Also, his off court performances only added to his personality and his likability.

Pete Sampras and Roger Federer, on the other hand, are almost like god created. They come to a match. They go through their motions. They win. They played and play the best damn tennis possible. Great. I don't know about others, but I am not looking for tennis lessons or how to hit the perfect cross court inside out fore hand. I am looking to be entertained. And I am going to vote with my remote. The US Open mens finals was not fun to watch. I channel surfed occasionally dropping by to check the score. Roger Federer, with his skills and records, sucks the suspense out of the game. It is almost given he will win. Instead, I really liked the game between Tommmy Haas and James Blake (round of 16 - 4-6, 6-4, 3-6, 6-0, 7-6 (4)) where Blake lost after having 3 match points. That is what I call a true thriller that no Hollywood can make with any amount of retakes and scripting.

The purest might balk at this, but a perfect athlete is not very entertaining. Rather, a good entertaining athlete is one who is not too perfect. Some one who sometimes lets his emotions take over. Some one who knows how involve the crowd, provide the surprise element even in routine affairs. Some one who wins most of the time, but not always. Some one who is not too far above the 2nd best.

iPod Touch & Starbucks

2007-09-06T00:15:00.001-05:00

Much is going to be said and written about the latest offering from Apple. While the wifi connection, the interface, etc. are impressive, one thing that stood out for me was the ability to sit at a Starbucks, listen to the song being played there, click an icon on my iPod and buy it instantly. That is instant gratification. I think that is closest we are today to thinking about buying something and executing it online with a single click. One click on your music player and boom you own a song that you were listening to on a public system - no knowledge of the song, artist, etc necessary. That is awesome.
Of course, some months back, this technology was introduced by Motorola:
MotoID: "The application works like this. If you are at a club or in your car and a song comes on that you like, but you don’t know the name, you hold up your phone, open the MotoID application and click the identify button. Motorola said it takes only a few seconds to identify the song, artist and album. Then if available, the user will also have the option to download the song’s ringtone, screensaver or wallpaper."

So, looks like Apple could have done better. I am wondering why this tie up with Starbucks and not something like MotoID over wifi - connect to iTunes over wifi (when available else remember the song till wifi is available) and give the option to buy the song. Now, that would be way cooler.

Book: Super Crunchers...

2007-08-29T14:10:00.000-05:00

Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart

"He (the author) frequently asks whether statistical methods are more accurate than the more intuitive conclusions drawn by experts, and consistently concludes that they are. Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined." - From Publishers Weekly

"In the past, one could get by on intuition and experience. Times have changed. Today, the name of the game is data. Ian Ayres shows us how and why in this groundbreaking book Super Crunchers. Not only is it fun to read, it just may change the way you think."—Steven D. Levitt, author of Freakonomics

While I don't doubt human abilities, a lot of times, I feel humans give way too much weightage to recent observations. That biases the data mining going on in our heads. Statistical methods, on the other hand, tend to be more even handed and careful about sampling from the past, avoiding over fitting, etc. That makes them more robust and more useful.

I am looking forward to reading this book and see how it compares to Freakonomics, The Black Swan..., etc.

Bonus: This is for my movie buff friend: "[Ayres's] thesis is provocative: Complex statistical models could be used to market products more intelligently, craft better movies, and solve health-care problems—if only we could get past our statistics phobia." —Portfolio

Another EQ

2007-08-28T18:15:00.000-05:00

A minor earthquake (3.0) occurred at 4:05:35 PM (PDT) on Tuesday, August 28, 2007. Emeryville, CA - 5 km (3 miles)

I felt this one pretty strong. While I felt it for only a second, it shook me up pretty hard and my heart beat raced up immediately. Ha well. Yet another distraction during work.

SFGate report is here. Here is the epicenter:

View Larger Map

Biking

2007-08-22T17:36:00.000-05:00

Recently, I got a bike - a 2004 Giant Cypress Hybrid. Got very addicted to it. Enjoying the pleasures of riding a very comfortable bike and exploring my neighborhood. I still remember the feeling on the day my dad removed the balance wheels on my cycle and I learnt to drive on 2 wheels. Suddenly, I got to go way faster, go on roads that were off limits because of the balance wheel, etc. I just could not stop riding.

With this bike, after the initial euphoria and riding around aimlessly, I have now settled on a route. This loop has some great views of the bay, good tail wind and then goes inland but pretty much sticks to bike paths. Total distance: 6.3 miles. If you do the shore line from East to West, there is considerable head wind, sun in the eye (evenings) and not so much fun.

Alameda Shoreline Loop

Share your bike routes @ Bikely.com

This site, Bikely.com is amazing. Tons of suggestions and maps. I am hoping to discover more routes in the East Bay and be fit and happy at the same time.

Update: I took a small deviation today and went up to Bay Farm. Din't venture too deep but was a pleasant detour.

Alameda Shoreline Bay Farm Central Loop

Share your bike routes @ Bikely.com

Chak De India

2007-08-19T21:22:00.000-05:00

I saw this movie last week and was impressed. It is difficult to mess up a sports themed movie. There is enough tension, emotion, rooting going on in a game/preparation for a game the movie makers have to carry it along. Given it is a movie, we pretty much know before hand who will win the final match. The trick is managing to induce surprises along the way. I think the director has done a very good job of introducing twists and turns, making the different players unique in their background and outlook and nicely integrating those aspects into the movie. It could very well be a nice movie to show on the character diversity present in India and yet how people get along nicely in the end.

I am very happy to see this movie come out of Bollywood where sports movies are a rarity. Even if sports was involved, it was always diluted by being a means to something else - redeem family honor, defeat villain, win over heroine. This movie had winning as its main theme with the different facets of the team - coach, players, administrators taking the central role. Pleasantly absent were a romantic interest for the hero, a born to pain the hero villain, a fight sequence, etc. A nice movie indeed.

Remember the Titans came to my mind after seeing this movie. Its an excellent movie with some underlying similarity with Chak De - underdogs performing above the rest in spite of society's lack of confidence, a bigger message at stake in the results, etc. This movie too had the coach playing a pivotal role in the movie and in unifying the players despite their obvious and not so obvious differences.

ps: To get recommendations on movies based on what you have watched (and others), check MovieLens from the University of Minnesota, CS Department.

Don't walk

2007-08-05T21:27:00.000-05:00

"Food production is now so energy-intensive that more carbon is emitted providing a person with enough calories to walk to the shops than a car would emit over the same distance. The climate could benefit if people avoided exercise, ate less and became couch potatoes. Provided, of course, they remembered to switch off the TV rather than leaving it on standby."

Walking to the shops ‘damages planet more than going by car’

Hmmm...I go to the gym, and use energy (treadmills using electricity) to burn energy. May be I should just sit at home and blog.

The article goes on to shatter a few more green myths like:

"— Paper bags cause more global warming than plastic. They need much more space to store so require extra energy to transport them from manufacturers to shops

— Organic dairy cows are worse for the climate. They produce less milk so their methane emissions per litre are higher

— Someone who installs a “green” lightbulb undoes a year’s worth of energy-saving by buying two bags of imported veg, as so much carbon is wasted flying the food to Britain"

Of course, the commenters in the discussions have thrashed the research, saying the calculations don't take into account the energy that went into making the car, producing and transporting the fuel, etc. Also, not everyone eats beef and beef as a source of all the calories for our body is pretty inefficient.

Again, in the case of the organic dairy cows, what about all the food and other supplements that are provided to a regular dairy cow versus what an organic dairy cow consumes?

It is difficult to go down the energy chain and exactly audit the consumption. It would be prudent to try to conserve energy through little things like switching the lights off when we leave a room, switching the monitor/computer when not in use, etc.

Simplicity

2007-08-05T20:52:00.000-05:00

"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction"
- Albert Einstein.

Could not be said more beautifully.

And then I come across this: Why the Desire to Simplify Can Inhibit Innovation

"...Here the key is to be able to seek less obvious, but potentially relevant factors (that will give differentiation in the long run, although to start with will seem like they are adding more complexity to the topic), secondly it is the ability to consider multi-directional, non-linear relationships between these variables and seeing problems as a whole, examining how the parts fit together and how decisions affect one another, and then lastly: creatively resolve those conflicts between seemingly opposing ideas to generate innovative outcomes. ..."

I agree. Innovation is not simple. The solution could and should be simple. But the process is bloody and takes a lot of complex balancing, satisfying constrains - often conflicting.

The Bourne Ultimatum

2007-08-04T20:36:00.000-05:00

Watched this movie last night and man, was I impressed. I am easily impressed but this one blew me away. Not many action movies get claps at the end. This one did.

Specifically, the scene at Tangier, Morocco was awesome. With Jason Bourne jumping from building to building, with the police on his heals, he trying to save the heroine from the killer who is also looking to kill Jason, it was one heck of a sequence. The camera following Jason as he jumps into a building was very cool. The only part of the movie I dint like was the part at the end when Jason delivers a speech to the guy who holds a gun to Jason. That din't fit well with the rest of the action packed non stop edge of the seat movie.

My verdict: A+.

Yahoo movies
critics: B+
users: A-

Bridge collapse in Minneapolis

2007-08-01T20:57:00.000-05:00

The bridge on I-35 used to cross the Mississippi river fell into the water below. This is crazy. It was like 2 blocks from where I lived. When I started working, I used to take this bridge every day! We used to take this bridge to go to downtown, the airport or pretty much any where even remotely south of my place. I hear all my friends in Minneapolis are safe.
Here is a link to the bridge on google maps

Reuters report says:
"A 500-foot (150-metre) span of the eight-lane steel and concrete bridge, which was under repair, buckled and fell into the river and onto concrete embankments at about 6:05 p.m. CDT (2305 GMT)."

"A freight train was passing on a track running under the bridge when it collapsed, and the train was cut in two, WCCO television reported."

eSwarm

2007-07-31T15:16:00.000-05:00

eSwarm

"Buyers register for a free account then join current swarms (groups of buyers) or create new ones. Swarms can be focused on any consumer good, debt refinancing, pre-paid gift and debit cards and even insurance products. Sellers then bid for the business." - http://www.techcrunch.com/

That is a very neat idea. The reason larger buyers (like Government, Military, large corporations) get better deals on things like insurance, etc. is because of their volumes. While a single customer might not matter much, as a big group, they have the power to negotiate, strike a better deal and change the whole market dynamics.

I will be eagerly waiting to see how this site evolves. I am surprised eBay and Craigslist are not providing this kind of service. It seems this type of business model would be right up their alley.

Couple of things:
1. Searching for 'Hybrid 19" bike' on google should show a link 'Join the swarm' specific for this product.
2. Instead of businesses just bidding on the price, they should be allowed to offer additional services, or freebies. And the swarm could possibly vote on the offers and select the best offer.

Hike - Point Reyes - Arch Rock

2007-07-29T00:58:00.001-05:00

Yesterday, a friend of mine and I went on this hike. It is an easy trail with a total walking distance of 8.2 miles. Took us exactly 4 hours. We dint rush and it was a pleasant trail with lot of greenery. Initially the trail was crowded but as we got farther from the start, there was almost no one we could see. At the end of the trail is a cliff with some very great views of the pacific.

From the NPS site: ARCH ROCK via BEAR VALLEY (13.1 km / 8.2 mi.)
Probably the single most popular trail in the park, the Bear Valley Trail is the most direct walk to the ocean from the Bear Valley Visitor Center. This pleasant stroll through mixed Douglas fir forest and along Bear Valley Creek is sheltered from sun, wind and coastal fog. Arch Rock is an overlook point with no beach access.Begin at the Bear Valley Trailhead, at the south end of the Bear Valley Parking Lot.

fat

2007-07-24T22:54:00.000-05:00

why is it so easy to gain weight while so difficult to lose?

Because our body is one giant magnet for bad, unhealthy food.

Update:
"If your friends and family get fat, chances are you will too, researchers report in a startling new study that suggests obesity is "socially contagious" and can spread easily from person to person."

Ref: San Diego researchers find obesity can spread in social circles

Does it mean we will have to disown all friends/family above a certain BMI to lose weight?
The study says no: "Despite their findings, the researchers said people should not sever their relationships."

Testing direct blog from Picasa

2007-07-22T19:35:00.000-05:00

Tried to post directly from inside Picasa inside my desktop and seeing how it turn out.

Btw, this was taken from the Marin Highlands, one of my favorite spots in the Bay Area. The view of the Golden Gate, the city and the Pacific is terrific from here.

Hike - Joaquin Miller Park

2007-07-22T16:50:00.000-05:00

This morning, with nothing much to do, I decided to go on a hike at the nearby Joaquin Miller Park here in Oakland, CA. While not as beautiful as the John Muir hike trails (in Marin County), I really enjoyed it here for the quietness in spite of being inside the city of Oakland, lack of many hikers (probably met like 4 hikers and 3 bikers in total), and most importantly - this park requires dogs to be on leashes.

More information on this park and the hikes here are available on this page.

earth quake

2007-07-20T12:24:00.000-05:00

USGS Report
SF Chronicle report

I have been through a couple of earth quakes but nothing rattled me like the one this morning at 4:42AM (Ritcher: 4.2). Even though it was classified as a light quake, it scared the shit out of me. One of the picture frames in my house with a glass covering feel on a wooden plank below and broke. There was this thud noise with the building shaking that woke me up. Hearing all these, my first reaction was there is a burglar in my balcony who jumped from the apartment above. Then within a few minutes, I realized it was an earthquake. Looks like this was one of the strongest in recent times here in the Bay Area:
"Anytime the earth moves beneath you it's a little unsettling, no matter who you are," said USGS seismologist Rufus Catchings, who felt the temblor. "This is the biggest (quake) we've had in a while."